Saturday, February 02, 2008

A billion strong or weak?

Saturday, February 02, 2008

While having a discussion with my wingies on the eve of a SPM test, I came up with the following hypothesis.

India should become a super in the recent future. People say that India will be a super power second to China. But I feel that might not be entirely true.

Lets consider China's case. What has happened there in the recent years is something of anti-baby boomers. Though people secretly still produce more than one child and don't report it during the census, the overall population growth rate has certainly declined compared to the last census which was way back in 1990.

I feel the next few decades and the immediate times after that are going to be very crucial. China will move into a newer time where they will not have as many young people as they did have earlier. This they will realise only once the current generations comes to age. There are chances of work being outsourced to India instead. Its just a possibility after all.

Yes obviously this hypothesis makes a lot of assumptions some of which might not be quite accurate but all I'm saying is that its a point of view. Reports show that by 2050 India would've overtaken China as the most populated country, and that too if we take official records, in reality, it could be much before that.

According to the 2001 census, about 35% of India is 0-14 range and nearly 60% is 14-60 years. Currently around 75% of the population is below 38 years of age. The numbers are large, it all depends on which way you look at it. It can mean a billion mouths to feed, where as it also means double the number of hands which can work. A billion strong or weak?

2 comments:

MishtiZaa

i think its both way a good term... if we think a billion weak then we MIGHT gear up and work towards it but if we think a billion strong then it means that we can join hands to "move into the newer time"
...well a nice n compact post!

rishabh

thanks

 
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